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July 25, 2024
CONTACT:
Anna Ross
Manager, Communications
703-245-8022
[email protected] [ mailto:[email protected] ]
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 
ICYMI: Whit Ayres, Mark Mellman, and Amy Walter discuss continuity, change, and polling in unprecedented 2024 Election.
 
McLean, VA (July 25, 2024) — Yesterday the American Association of Political Consultants Foundation (AAPCF) hosted an exclusive webinar, 2024 Election Insights: Polling Trends and Expert Analysis, featuring legendary pollsters and strategists Whit Ayres and Mark Mellman. Their discussion was moderated by renowned political analyst Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report.
 
The timely conversation explored the top polling trends emerging in the 2024 cycle, the impact of President Joe Biden's recent announcement on the presidential race, and what it might mean for control of the Senate and House, as well as the impact of the Vice Presidential picks of both campaigns.
 
Amy Walter kicked off the discussion by reminding us that "no one in modern times has seen anything like this.” While there was agreement that much would stay the same in the race, there was also consensus among the panelists that significant changes could happen at the margins, where tight elections are won and lost.
 
"Keep an eye on Georgia. Right now, Donald Trump has a very substantial lead. Our last survey there had him up 10 points over Joe Biden. But that is the kind of state where you could really see some changes in the dynamics with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. It’s going to be a fascinating state to watch this year,” said Whit Ayres.
 
Mellman also provided a word of caution related to methodology and polling that relies on panels, noting that “there are certain groups that perform very poorly in panels, younger people for example. Twenty-five percent of young people claimed to have a license to operate a nuclear reactor. Older people do not claim to be licensed to operate nuclear reactors. A lot of evidence to suggest that those panels are not very good, especially with sub-groups.”
 
For these insights and more, a full recording of the webinar can be found here [ [link removed] ] .
 
The AAPC Foundation’s mission is rooted in the belief that a robust political consulting community is essential for the health and vibrancy of our democracy. We aim to work closely with association members and stakeholders to advocate for the protection of free speech and to participate in public policy outcomes that have far-reaching implications. For more information, see [link removed] [ [link removed] ] .
 
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